Monday, June 25, 2012

THE ECONOMY -- FACTS, NOT POLITICAL FICTION


 THE ECONOMY -- FACTS NOT IN FOCUS
These comments are made to give information on the economy that is not in major focus of reporting agencies and the media. They are also made in an attempt to reveal some facts that may be reported but with a focus that does not comport with reality. 
As written here before, we must grow the GDP, but the structure of the current economy prohibits the massive growth required to satisfy the voracious appetite of the current administration and the Democrats in Congress for tax revenue. This fact is exacerbated greatly by the fact that only about 50% of people pay taxes. 

-- The current economy has structural problems that are not being addressed. As the "new" economy has evolved (devolved?) to one dominated by the Financial Industry, the metrics used for the "old economy" are largely not applicable in either elucidating the problem causes or in leading to solutions. The Financial Industry, by it's very nature, cannot provide jobs for the middle class where jobs are so vitally necessary.

-- "Job creation" has become a mantra with politicians, elected and appointed, having no real understanding of what is needed to create an economic base where jobs and middle class wealth are created. No president creates private sector jobs! Neither does Congress as a body. Government can only promulgate sensible policy that permits the private sector to flourish with job and wealth creation. Virtually every policy initiative of the Obama administration is negative to economic expansion! With his lack of working experience, who is surprised?

-- Manufacturing has declined to about 10%, or less, of GDP. Manufacturing employment is only 9% of total jobs in the USA. Manufacturing is where the whole middle class had opportunities for employment with potential for upward mobility (personal growth) to improve their lots in life, including their wealth. The service-based economy of today, dominated by the Financial Industry, has no potential for creating opportunities for the broad range of middle class people. Under current conditions, there is little optimism for manufacturing to expand adequately to make major impact on the GDP. Unions and government policies are major factors affecting manufacturing decline in America.

-- Data from government agencies are highly inaccurate and apparently even contrived to present a better picture to the public than actually exists. BLS data top the list with the last 20 reports of unemployment being revised, worsening the original report. How can this be coincidental?

To wit: National Debt-to-GDP is now 107% and increasing. Government still deceptively reports the number at about 70%! The difference? Debt to the Social Security Trust Fund of $5 Trillion isn't computed. Why? Because it is considered not owed, hence not payable -- debt to ourselves, in spite of statutory commitment, is not considered debt at all. Government does not intend to pay it back. It will be ignore, or monetized. Despicable.

To wit: "Manufacturing is surging back." No it isn't, in spite of the fact that some specialty manufacturing operations are doing well. Americans now make few commodities, products that fuel a large part of consumption. Now, when Americans consume commodities, they buy foreign goods.

-- 70% of GDP is consumption. How can we grow GDP and the manufacturing component of it with so few commodities produced in the USA? Unions have decimated some industries and killed others outright!

-- Exports are critical to trade balance and GDP. President Obama declared a goal of 50% increase in exports by end of his first term. Worse than foolish...deceptive or done out of ignorance? This subject needs a complete treatise to inform people of facts -- what we export where for example! Airplanes have been top exports for 6 years. Last year refined petroleum products topped the list. And Obama wants the petroleum industry curtailed! Even his shills should rebel at this, but they don't, of course.

-- The data bases for reporting economic changes have been changed...."updated." For example, the steel industry is said to have declined 35% but was reported to be "surging back" a month ago. Facts are revealing. The base has been reset to 1998. There's no consideration of the nearly equal decline in the 3 decades before. Even if the government numbers are used, the real story is..... the improvement in the period reported was a puny 4.3% in spite of the hype. The increase necessary just to get back the 35% loss would be 54%. How deceptive can it get?
Auto sales are reported to be surging back. NO! Not at all. In 2007, auto sales were at 17.5 million units per year. Sales slumped to less than 13 million units...26% decline. The new base for reporting improvement is 13 million units. To get back to 17+ million units sold per year now requires 35% improvement. Not happening!By the way, GM's improvement is hyped to the heavens, but their improvements are largely in China. 

-- While the economy is dominated by the Financial Industry, it is underpinned by the hydrocarbons industry (oil, gas, coal). Obama's attack on this industry is arguably the most wrong-headed effort one can imagine. The economy has serious ills, the foundation has serious defects, and Obama's policies only worsen the illnesses and defects.
Obama's actions, on oil and coal especially, can be related to one's home having structural problems.
The house needs repair and updating.....so to fix the problems we destroy the foundation! And, expect the house to stand, even to be better. How wrong can a policy-maker be?

I could go on, but more later. Our national condition is critical and worsening continuously. It has been said by some misguided people that "AMERICA HAS BECOME UNMANAGEABLE." I reject this! America can be managed, but not by the people of inadequate intellect, wisdom and judgment being elected and appointed to controlling offices. This must be turned around, but with the electorate programmed as it is today, I cannot see it happening. Sad!






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